Donald Trump's approval rating is sitting close to the lowest point of his political career, and the open question for fans is whether it climbs back to 38% or higher by the end of 2026. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll put him at 32%, while a separate Economist/YouGov poll had him at 36%. Polling averages sit a few points above the individual polls, which is why the 38% line is a genuinely live call rather than a formality.
What happened
The pressure follows the US midterm elections of early November. Voters rejected Republicans in large numbers, and the Republicans now prepare to be the minority in Congress in January.
Several recent polls point the same way:
- Reuters/Ipsos: the poll was conducted online from 6 to 9 November with 1,705 US adults, and showed overall approval at 32%. Approval on cost of living was 21%, on the economy 25% and on immigration 38%. The same poll had a margin of error of about 2 points.
- Economist/YouGov: a poll released on Saturday 7 November put approval at 36%, down from 39% in the previous survey dated 29 October.
- Polling averages: RealClearPolling showed 38.8% approval in its 8 November average, while Nate Silver's average had him at 37.8% on 9 November. The New York Times average showed 37% approval and 60% disapproval.
Taken together, the averages sit within a point or two of 38%, while the most recent individual polls sit well below it.
What it means
The main lesson is that the answer depends on which number you look at. A single poll can swing several points, and the Reuters/Ipsos series has already recorded a career low of 31% in mid-October. Averages smooth out that noise, but they also lag behind when opinion moves quickly.
There is also a split inside the numbers. The same Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 81% of Republicans supported Trump's immigration approach, compared with 50% who backed his handling of the cost of living. Supporters point to the strength of his base and his record on immigration. Critics point to prices and the economy, where the poll found the weakest numbers. Both readings are visible in the data, and both will shape what happens next.
Foreign policy is also in the mix. The same Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 71% of Americans want Congress to pass legislation ending the conflict with Iran, a view shared by a large majority of Democrats and about half of Republicans.
What to watch
Fans trying to call the end-of-year number should track a few things:
- Weekly polls. Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov both publish regularly, so you will see new data points before 31 December.
- The average you are predicting. RealClearPolling, the New York Times and Silver Bulletin each calculate their averages differently. Check which one a market uses before you assume a figure.
- Congress. Lawmakers return with government funding, the debt limit and Pete Hegseth on the agenda, and the House narrowly rejected an impeachment push against Hegseth. Fights like these can move public opinion, though not always in predictable directions.
- Economic data. Cost of living is the weakest area in the polls, so price news is a plausible driver of any recovery.
Calls you can make
Before the outcome is known, these are the questions fans can predict on Vatic:
- Will Trump's approval rating be at or above 38% at the end of 2026? You can make your call on this market.
- Will a major national poll show approval at 30% or lower before the end of the year?
- Will the Reuters/Ipsos overall approval figure be back above 35% by the end of December?
- Will the Economist/YouGov poll return to 39% or higher?
Whichever you pick, write down the source and the date. That is the only way to score your call fairly when the result comes in.
How to make a sharper call
Start with the baseline: the latest averages and the most recent individual polls. Then ask whether the gap between them is likely to close or widen. Look at each pollster's track record and sample size, and remember that a poll with a 2-point margin of error can look like a move when it is noise. Test your reasoning on markets across Vatic, then see how your calls compare on the leaderboard.
If you want to test your reads against friends, start a league with friends and make the same calls together. Vpoints have no cash value, so the point is simply to be right more often than the people you are competing against.
FAQ
What is Trump's current approval rating?
It depends on the source. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted 6 to 9 November, showed 32% approval. The Economist/YouGov poll released on 7 November showed 36%. Polling averages from early November sat between about 37% and 39%.
Why do averages differ from individual polls?
Each pollster uses its own method, sample and weighting. Averages combine many polls, which reduces the effect of one outlier, but they can also lag behind a real shift in opinion.
Does a 38% threshold depend on which average is used?
Yes. A market can resolve on a specific average or a specific poll, so read the resolution rules on the market page before you make your call.
Can I win anything on Vatic?
Vatic is free to play. Vpoints have no cash value and cannot be bought, sold or cashed out. Correct calls earn Vpoints and progress toward levels and leaderboards.
Sources
- Trump approval rating holds near career low in latest poll (Yahoo News)
- How Trump's Approval Rating Has Changed Since Midterms Drubbing (Newsweek)
- Trump hits lowest approval rating since September (AOL)
- Trump's Approval Rating Stuck at 32% (ASAL Media)
- Most Americans want new Democratic Congress to end Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds (JPost)
- House shelves Hegseth impeachment resolution (NBC News)
- Politics and Government News (CNBC)
Researched and written with AI assistance by the Vatic Desk, from the sources listed above. Vatic is a free prediction game for adults (18+). Vpoints have no cash value and can't be bought or cashed out. Nothing here is financial or betting advice.