Bitcoin Price After Hot CPI: What Fans Can Call Next

Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on 10 November 2026 after US consumer prices came in hotter than forecast. That data has pushed markets to price in a Federal Reserve rate hike at its meeting on 8-9 December, with some traders now weighing a bigger, half-point move. The question for fans is whether bitcoin can hold its recent support zone before the Fed speaks, and how big that hike will be.

What happened on 10 November

The October inflation report showed consumer prices rising 0.4% month on month, above the 0.3% that economists had expected. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third straight month. Benzinga reported that the data landed hours after Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said a core reading around 0.3% or higher would put a half-point hike on the table.

Crypto reacted quickly. FXStreet reported that bitcoin fell below $73,000 and ether dropped 5% to $2,029, with about $716 million in crypto liquidations. Spot bitcoin ETFs also bled money: bitcoin ETFs recorded $411.92 million in outflows on the day, according to SoSoValue data cited by Analytics Insight.

The move follows a weak start to November. Coinpedia noted that bitcoin had been trading around $81,195 at the start of the month, and that US spot bitcoin ETFs had recorded $2.20 billion in net outflows since 1 November.

Why a December hike is now the base case

Before the data, markets were already leaning towards a hike. After it, the odds moved further. CME FedWatch figures vary by source and by time of reading. Investing.com put the chance of a quarter-point hike at 88.8%, while TradingKey reported 84.7% with a 15.3% chance of a half-point move. Prediction market traders on Polymarket priced an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike and about 12.7% for a larger move.

The policy rate currently sits at 3.75% to 4.00%, so a quarter-point move would take it to 4.00% to 4.25%. CBS News quoted Edward Jones economist James McCann, who called this the last CPI reading before the December meeting and said the real question is whether the Fed moves by a quarter or half a point.

For crypto, the chain is simple to follow. Hotter inflation raises the odds of higher rates. Higher rates push Treasury yields up, and a stronger dollar tends to pull money away from riskier assets such as bitcoin.

What it means for bitcoin

Analysts have pointed to the $72,000 to $75,000 area as the key zone. Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades, as reported by Coinpedia, sees that range as important support, with the next level down near $72,040. If bitcoin holds there, it could form a higher low. If it fails, FXStreet's technical outlook flagged a possible slide towards $68,000.

Two things matter most. The first is whether ETF money returns or keeps leaving. The second is how the Fed frames its path into 2027. One strategist cited by Latin Times said that stubborn inflation means further hikes cannot be ruled out well past December.

What to watch next

Bitcoin around $72,000 to $75,000: a daily close below the lower end would test the next support.
ETF flows: persistent outflows would suggest institutional selling has not stopped.
Fed odds on FedWatch and Polymarket: a shift from a 25 to a 50 basis point hike would mark a major change in expectations.
Fed decision, 8-9 December: the meeting is the final policy decision of 2026, and it comes before the November CPI report on 10 December.
Political and regulatory headlines: these can add volatility, but the rate outlook is driving the current move.

Calls you can make on Vatic

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This article is not financial advice. It describes what markets and data did and does not recommend buying, selling or holding any asset.

FAQ

Why did bitcoin fall after the CPI report?

The October inflation data came in hotter than forecast, which raised expectations of a Fed rate hike. Higher rates and a firmer dollar tend to weigh on bitcoin, and ETF outflows added to the selling.

When is the next Fed decision?

The Federal Reserve's final scheduled 2026 policy meeting runs 8-9 December, according to CBS News. The key question is whether it raises rates by a quarter point or a half point.

Are the Fed odds the same everywhere?

No. CME FedWatch figures reported on 10 November varied by source and time, from about 85% to 89% for a quarter-point hike. Check the latest readings before forming a view.

Can I win money on Vatic?

No. Vatic is free to play, and Vpoints have no cash value. They cannot be bought, sold or cashed out.

Sources

Researched and written with AI assistance by the Vatic Desk, from the sources listed above. Vatic is a free prediction game for adults (18+). Vpoints have no cash value and can't be bought or cashed out. Nothing here is financial or betting advice.